From email received 27 May 2005..
Main events: 21 - 27 May
French referendum too close to call
New poll: opposition in Britain increases ahead of French vote
European leaders and yes campaign call for EU to ignore no votes
ASLEF comes out against the Constitution
All eyes are on France this week ahead of the vote on Sunday 29 May. The
latest poll suggests that the French oppose the EU
Constitution by a majority of 55 percent. However, a large proportion of
voters remain undecided, and 15 percent of those who say they are against have
said they may still vote yes. (Ipsos poll for Le Figaro, 27 May) Crucially,
polls also fail to take into account the 1.4 million residents of France's
overseas territories, who are thought to be more inclined to vote yes, and were
crucial to the victory of the yes campaign in the Maastricht referendum.
The polls show that the more the French know about the EU Constitution, the more
they are opposed to it. At the end of 2004 the French yes campaign had a 38
percent lead in the polls, with 69 percent of voters in favour, and only 31
against. (Ipsos for Le Figaro, 2 December) However over the course of the
government's campaign the number of people in favour of the Constitution has
fallen dramatically, and no campaigners now have a ten percent lead.
Pierre Giacometti, research director for the French polling company
Ipsos has told the FT that, "The more
someone says they have read the Constitution in detail, the more sceptical they
are." (17 May 2005)
The government has taken the polls very seriously. A no vote in the referendum
would still come as a big surprise, not because people want the Constitution,
but because the Government has led a very biased campaign with heavy use of
taxpayers' money.
It has led a huge propaganda campaign, spending at least 20 million euros on
advertising, and handing out one billion euros worth of 'sweeteners', such as
tax breaks for farmers, pay increases for public sector workers and free flights
for voters in the overseas territories. The allocation of media airtime has also
meant that no campaigners in France have been hugely underrepresented in the
media.
If France does vote yes, it is likely to be by a very narrow margin. That will
undermine the UK Government's attempt to claim that the rest of Europe is hugely
enthusiastic about the Constitution.
Apart from Britain, referendums are only being held in the countries where their
Governments expected they would win easily - for example the Swedish will not be
allowed a vote because their Government thinks they would vote no again. If the
Constitution can only scrape through in countries which have been traditionally
enthusiastic then there is a very good chance of a no in Britain.
An ICM poll released this week has revealed that opposition to the EU
Constitution is increasing in the UK, in the run up to the referendum in France.
The poll, conducted since the launch of the no campaign, puts opposition to the
EU Constitution on 57% - an increase in the lead for the no campaign of 9% since
the last poll in March.
ICM asked 1,000 voters: "If there were a referendum tomorrow, would you vote for
Britain to sign up to the European Constitution or not?" 57% said no, while just
24% said yes. 19% said that they didn't know.
When the same question was last asked in March, 54% said no, 30% said yes and
16% didn't know.
The more Europe is in the news, and the more people think about it, the more
sceptical voters appear to become. This result fits with independent research by
the BBC and MORI which has found that the
more people know about the EU Constitution, the more opposed to it they become.
A separate poll this week also highlighted the continuing opposition of
British business to the EU Constitution. In a survey of mid-sized businesses
conducted on behalf of the credit insurer Euler Hermes, 57% expressed their
opposition to the Constitution.
The poll was the sixth in a row to show that business is strongly opposed to the
EU Constitution:
In April 2004 a poll of chief executives found that 59 percent of respondents
thought the Constitution would be bad for their business (New Frontiers/ ICM).
In April 2004 a poll for the London Chambers of Commerce found 56 percent of its
members against.
In January 2005 a poll found 60 percent of Britain's top 500 companies opposed.
(MORI)
In February 2005 a poll found 49 percent of the members of the Institute of
Directors opposed to the Constitution, with just 29 percent in favour.
A poll in April 2005 found that 68 percent of the financial directors of
Britain's largest companies were opposed. (MORI)
Another poll which will cause concern for the yes campaign was published by the
British election survey this week. It showed that a campaign for the EU
Constitution led by Tony Blair would be likely to backfire. The survey found
that 41 percent of Labour voters would back the Constitution if asked a
"neutral" question on the text. But when Tony Blair's support for the
Constitution was highlighted that figure dropped to 32 percent.
French diplomatic sources in Britain argued this week that ratification
should go ahead, and Britain should have a referendum, regardless of a no vote
in France. The briefing followed calls by other EU leads to press on with all or
parts of the Constitution even if some countries vote no. (ITN, 26 May)
Valery Giscard d'Estaing said this week that if the French vote no they will
have to vote again. He said that the ratification process will "obviously
continue" if France votes no and that, "What we'll say at the end, is that those
who have not voted for the Constitution, we will ask them to revote." (Le
Figaro, 27 May)
Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said this week that, "If it's a
Yes, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue"
(Telegraph, 26 May 2005). Juncker has previously stated that, "The French vote
is important, but I don't think it will be able to stop the ratification
procedures underway in the other countries." (Le Figaro, 21 April)
Danish Foreign Affairs Minister Per Stig Moeller has said, "The Danes will go to
the polls, whatever the result of the French referendum." Danish Prime Minster
Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said, "Denmark will give its verdict on the
Constitution with complete independence and will not let itself be influenced by
France or other countries." (Le Figaro, 21 April)
The Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot said at a meeting in Copenhagen, "If
France votes no, then other countries must continue the fight for a yes".
(EUobserver, 4 April) The Dutch opposition has said that the government should
ignore a no vote, and the government itself has said it will ignore the result
if the turnout is below 30 percent.
Lord Brittan, one of the board members of the Britain in Europe campaign, this
week said on Newsnight ( 24 May) that if there was a no vote EU leaders should
"cherry pick" parts of the Constitution and go ahead with them - without a
referendum. He said that the EU president in particular, should still go ahead.
A no vote from any country should mean that the Constitution is abandoned. But
even if some countries vote no, there will clearly be pressure to go ahead with
parts or indeed all of the Constitution.
This kind of "stealth ratification" proposed by the yes campaign would be
completely undemocratic. If the French or any other country vote no the
Government must either give us a say in a referendum, or promise not to go ahead
with any parts of the Constitution without a vote in Britain.
Read more: Vote No in EU referendum campaign part 2.
Now we have leaders who say they know what is best for us when all they want is to have absolute rule over us, so we can be arrested or put in jail just because a politician dislikes us and without any judge and jury determining if any law has been broken and no democratic process to stop the stupid laws being imposed on us in the first place.
Links: EU Referendum - just Say NO Read all about the EU constitution on just one page.
Page started 27 May 2005, amended 12 Feb 2008